FILE PHOTO - A Canco gas station in Penticton is seen in this December 2021 file photo.

(DAN WALTON / iNFOnews.ca)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine won't help the price of gasoline in the long term, but it likely won't impact gas prices in the Okanagan and Kamloops in the short term.

A barrel of crude oil was trading for $92 on Feb. 23, and after the invasion the next day, the price reached a peak of just over $100 per barrel.

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy.com’s head of petroleum analysis, wasn’t sure how high the price of crude would go.

The price dropped to $91 per barrel today, Feb. 25.

De Haan said there was a dramatic turnaround since yesterday, but he’s not sure exactly why the market reacted the way it did.

“It was looking like it could have been a dicey weekend at the pump, but not I think it could be just minor increases that we see,” he said. “Not sure what changed the tide but here we are.”

READ MORE: Price of gas jumping up again in Kamloops and Okanagan

Russia is the world’s second largest producer of oil and if its supply was cut off from international markets, it would shock the global economy, De Haan said.

“If we lose Russia oil prices are just going to skyrocket.”

He doesn’t see any scenario in which the West would sanction Russian oil, but said it’s possible President Vladimir Putin may cut off the supply himself.

“The primary concern I have is that Russia itself would cut the supply of oil to the outside world to deliver a crushing blow to the supply and demand of oil today,” he said. “Russia could inflict great harm on the global economy by cutting off their oil.”

Aside from the conflict in Ukraine, De Haan said oil prices were already trending higher because of global supply shortages.

Asked if the current events in Europe could accelerate the construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, De Haan said it’s not likely. 

“The Canadian government hummed and hawed for quite some time on that project, I don’t think this event changes things yet. It doesn’t rise to the magnitude.”

READ MORE: Canadians can expect higher gas prices from Ukraine war to kick in on Saturday

In the Okanagan today, the cheapest fuel can be found in Vernon, where Safeway is selling regular gas for $1.48.9 per litre. In Kelowna, the Super Save on Highway 33 is selling the cheapest gas in the city at $1.50.9. Gas it a bit more expensive in Penticton, where the cheapest can be found at Canco for $1.58.9 per litre.

In Kamloops, Costco is selling the cheapest gas for $1.56.9 per litre today.

The cheapest in the province, according to GasBuddy, can be found at a Tempo in Farmington, where it is selling for $1.41.9 per litre. Farmington is near Fort St. John and located on Highway 97, over 900 kilometres north of Kamloops.

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