FILE - Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally (0) looks to pass against the Minnesota Lynx during the first half of Game 2 of a WNBA basketball playoff semifinals series Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Matt Krohn, File)
May 06, 2026 - 2:04 PM
LAS VEGAS (AP) — The Las Vegas Aces have ruled the WNBA in recent years, winning three of the past four championships, and they are expected to compete for the title yet again.
Las Vegas, however, has plenty of company in the race to the top, according to oddsmakers, as the season begins Friday.
New York, which won it all two years ago, jumped from the fourth-best odds of +450 at BetMGM Sportsbook to the +210 favorite after the addition of three-time All-Star Satou Sabally. She joins a Liberty team headlined by two-time MVP Breanna Stewart and four-time All-Star Sabrina Ionescu.
New York is the +220 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook.
The Liberty, however, will be without Ionescu at least two weeks because of foot and ankle injuries.
“There were some people who were picking off some non-Liberty-related markets just based on the initial prognosis of her being out at least a few weeks,” said David Lieberman, Caesars pro basketball lead trader. “But nothing too crazy because I don't think it's too bad of an injury.”
It's a crowded field behind the Liberty.
The A'ja Wilson-led Aces are listed at +375 at BetMGM and Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever at +425. The Atlanta Dream, which traded for Angel Reese, is at +550. The Aces and Fever are each +450 at Caesars and the Dream are +550.
Longtime handicapper Dana Lane called it “a two-team race” with the edge to the Aces. He likes that Las Vegas not only returns the league's only four-time MVP in Wilson, but also again brings back multiple-time All-Stars Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd as well as coach Becky Hammon for her fifth season.
Lane is concerned how long it might take the Liberty to adapt to new coach Chris DeMarco's offense. He spent the past 13 years in different roles for the NBA's Golden State Warriors.
“I don't know how many games that's going to cost them to begin with, and that's also something that could turn into mid-season frustration," Lane said. “It's very difficult when you take somebody who's used to, no disrespect, having NBA athletes, especially the ones he has, and tries to implement those expectations at another level.”
A'ja again likely to win MVP
The Aces' Wilson is the favorite at BetMGM (+225) and Caesars (+200) to capture her third MVP in a row.
“With A'ja being such a massive part of what they do and the offense running through her and her ability to control the boards and second-chance opportunities, I just don't see how you don't put your money on A'ja,” Lane said. “I'm not a big proponent of what happened last year is going to happen this year, but that has been a pretty safe bet in the WNBA for a lack of a better way to say it.
"I think there is such a gap that I don't think you close that necessarily in one year.”
Still a lot of love for Caitlin
Wilson might be the favorite, but bets are pouring in on Clark. She is the second choice at BetMGM and Caesars at +250 each.
There is such strong public support at BetMGM that Clark is way ahead in percentage of tickets on her (35.6) and percentage of money (31.1). The next closest is the Dallas Wings' Paige Bueckers (20.0 and 13.8).
“When Caitlin Clark joined the WNBA in 2024, BetMGM saw a 108% increase in betting on the league,” BetMGM trader Tyler Groth said. “We expect interest in the league to continue growing especially if Clark can stay healthy, compete for a title and MVP.”
The same for the Fever
The Fever also feed off the interest in Clark, receiving 26.6% of the tickets and 37.3% of the money to win it all. Las Vegas is the next closest at 11.9 and 16.2.
Clark, who played in only 13 games last season because of injuries, is part of an Indiana team that includes All-Stars Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell and came within an overtime loss at Las Vegas from advancing to last year's WNBA Finals despite losing half its roster to injuries.
“I try not to get too high on Indiana,” Lane said. “I understand what happened last year with Caitlin. I get it. It's still a .500 team. They probably wouldn't have been with her in the lineup, but it's really hard for me to go against Minnesota (as the third contender).”
Angel in Atlanta
After wearing out her welcome in Chicago despite being an All-Star both seasons, Reese is hoping her double-double dominance with the Sky carries over to the Dream.
Her presence is why Atlanta is among the favorites to win the title. She averaged 14.1 points and 12.9 rebounds over her two seasons with the Sky, but that was overshadowed by how her time there ended. The club suspended her for half a game after she publicly criticized the organization and wound up not playing the final three games while also coping with a back injury.
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