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March 29, 2020 - 12:00 PM
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement that people who have lost their jobs due to COVID-19 may be eligible for $2,000 payments for four months, may give us some indication of how long the lockdown could last and shows that the federal government appears to be planning for the long term.
B.C. Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has said several times "this is a marathon, not a sprint" but as Interior residents get used to life at home in lockdown, the question of how long this is going to last appears to be on the forefront of everyone's minds.
It's been less than 10 days since B.C. declared a public health emergency March 17, ordering bars to shut and limiting gatherings to no more than 50 people. Days later, Henry ordered restaurants to close dining areas and gave tougher orders telling a press conference, "if you cannot do (social distancing) in your business, you need to shut it down for now."
But while the provincial orders stay in effect until May 30, the B.C. government has yet to put even a tentative date on how long the lockdown will last.
The move is in contrast to some of the other provinces and countries around the world.
When the Quebec government ordered all shopping malls, restaurants and beauty salons to shut, it said they had to remain closed until May 1. Days later, measures were stepped up to include all non-essential businesses and services and told to close for three weeks.
On March 23, Ontario Premier Doug Ford ordered all non-essential businesses to shut down, saying the measure would be in place for a least two weeks.
The U.K government has given an initial timeline of three weeks for its lockdown. New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ordered her country's lockdown to last four weeks and French President Emmanuel Macron said its lockdown should last a total of six weeks.
U.S. President Donald Trump has unsurprisingly been the most decisive saying he wanted the country back open by Easter.
While B.C. politicians haven't put on a timeline on the shutdown, Minister of Health Adrian Dix has said the situation would be a "struggle for weeks and for months."
Multiple times the politicians have reiterated our actions today will greatly affect the future.
"The next few weeks will be very difficult, it will be some time before we see the change we're all working towards," Dix said March 24.
How long the lockdown will continue for remains to be seen, however, a recently published report in the medical journal The Lancet estimated that lifting the lockdown in the Chinese city of Wuhan in March - more than two months after restrictions were imposed - would likely lead to a further outbreak in August. China also reverted to some further restrictions to avoid that scenario. The researchers found by keeping the restrictions in place until April would delay a second outbreak until October.
"Our projections suggest that premature and sudden lifting of interventions could lead to an earlier secondary peak," reads the report.
It seems that if our politicians follow the advice from medical experts we'll be staying at home for quite a while longer.
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