Polling data suggests incumbent MPs have little to worry about in Okanagan, Kamloops | iNFOnews | Thompson-Okanagan's News Source

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Polling data suggests incumbent MPs have little to worry about in Okanagan, Kamloops


The federal election looks like it's going to be close in many parts of Canada – but not in Kamloops or the Okanagan, according to the latest numbers from 388Canada.

The riding of Kelowna–Lake Country appears to be the Okanagan’s closest race in the 2021 federal election. It’s still not much of race though. Conservative candidate Tracey Gray’s chances of winning are pegged at 91%. The website predicts Gray will receive 42% of the vote, compared to 33% for Liberal challenger Tim Krupa.

The 388Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data.

The only other Okanagan incumbent who has a slim chance of losing their riding is Conservative Dan Albas in Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, albeit his odds of winning are 96%. Albas is polling at 38% while NDP challenger Joan Phillips is at 28%.

Elsewhere in the region, the odds of a new party winning are virtually non-existent.

In the South Okanagan–West Kootenay riding, NDP candidate Richard Cannings' odds of winning are over 99%. Cannings is polling at 43% and Conservative candidate Helena Konanz is at 28%.

In the North Okanagan–Shuswap, Conservative candidate Mel Arnold also has over a 99% chance of winning his seat back. He is polling at 42%, and the next closest challenger is Liberal candidate Shelley Desautels at 24%.

The Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo riding is also being projected with greater than 99% certainty by 338Canada. With Conservative MP Cathy McLeod not running for reelection, Conservative candidate Frank Caputo is running in his first election and polling at 41%, followed by Liberal candidate Jesse McCormick at 27%.

READ MORE: Federal Election 2021: Where each party stands on hot topics in Canada

Nationwide, 338Canada’s data from Sept. 14 is projecting another Liberal minority government, but with fewer seats than in 2019. The Conservatives and NDP are both expected to gain seats. To form a majority government, a political party needs its candidates to win in at least 170 ridings.

Leaders of the major parties – Justin Trudeau, Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh – are all expected to win their local ridings with a likelihood greater than 99%.

People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier is in a close race in his riding of Beauce in Quebec. He lost the seat in 2019 to the Conservative Party which he defected from, but in the upcoming election, he is polling at 34% while the Conservative candidate is at 37%. Bernier’s odds of winning the riding are 32%.

Green Party leader Annamie Paul, who’s decision to campaign exclusively in her riding of Toronto Centre, is polling at 16%, which is lower than the Liberals and the NDP. The Liberal Party’s chances of winning that riding are over 99%.

READ MORE: Trudeau, O'Toole battle for trust as poll suggests Liberals, Tories tied in support

Across Canada, the Liberals have the highest polling numbers at 32%. The Conservatives are close behind with 31.7% and in third place is the NDP with 18.9%. 

Within British Columbia, the Conservative party is the most popular with 30.2% of support, followed by the NDP at 28.7%, then the Liberal Party with 27.8%.

Advanced voting has concluded and the general election will take place Sept. 20.

To contact a reporter for this story, email Dan Walton or call 250-488-3065 or email the editor. You can also submit photos, videos or news tips to the newsroom and be entered to win a monthly prize draw.

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