Shawn Mendes performs "Summer of Love" at the MTV Video Music Awards at Barclays Center on Sunday, Sept. 12, 2021, in New York. Mendes is one of several musicians to cancel Canadian concert dates in recent weeks.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Charles Sykes-Invision-AP

TORONTO - HOLD HOLD HOLD - MOVES SUNDAY AT 8 A.M.

First, Justin Bieber postponed his June concert in Toronto, then the Weeknd was sidelined by the Rogers network outage a few weeks later. Shawn Mendes pulled out of dates at the Scotiabank Arena several days before showtime, while the New Kids of the Block scrapped an appearance one week before showtime.

Concerts are roaring back after two years of pandemic restrictions in Canada, but for music fans who often travel from afar, the triumphant return is anything but certain. Some of the music industry's biggest artists have pulled out of Canadian shows within days — sometimes hours — of start time, leaving ticketholders who travelled a good distance with flight and hotel bills that often can't be refunded.

Usually, the circumstances have been outside of the performer's control — ranging from illness to technical hurdles — but for concertgoers who've forked out big bucks for a night that doesn't happen, the sting can linger.

"You're essentially making an investment and hoping for a payoff," said Jill Krajewski, a culture writer based in Toronto who has scaled back on attending shows since the start of the pandemic.

"It's a bit of a lottery ticket."

Postponements and cancellations are nothing new in the concert industry, but as ticket prices spike, the cost of gas and food soar from inflation, and promoters work hard to get people back in venues, some fans say one negative experience could affect whether they go to another show, especially outside their home city.

It's a debate Tracy Smith faces next time she considers buying tickets.

Earlier this month, she flew to Toronto from Atlanta in hopes of seeing the Weeknd launch his After Hours til Dawn world tour in his hometown. It wasn't until she was standing in line to get inside the stadium that she learned the show couldn't move forward because of the Rogers network failure.

"Nobody really knew what was going on," she recalled. "The lines were getting longer around the block."

The concert tickets for herself and her daughter cost $800 in total, while she says a flight and hotel bundle came to another $2,800. The tickets are refundable, but Smith isn't getting the rest of her expenses back since the cancellation happened on the day of the event.

That's what bothers her the most, she said. Smith stayed at the hotel in the Rogers Centre, but because the Weeknd was cancelled an hour before showtime she had already checked in. She's contacted Rogers to ask for at least a partial refund or credit — arguing it was their network that failed and a hotel on their premises — but she said they haven't answered her request.

"It caused tears," she added. "And it makes me want to travel less to shows."

Experiences like that are common at major concert hubs across the country which draw in superfans and families from other provinces, or in the Weeknd's case, as far away as Europe and Australia.

Eric Alper, a music publicist and industry player, said the cumulative attention from cancellations isn't helping an industry that's still trying to get back on its feet.

"From a fan perspective, there is a bit of a bad taste in somebody's mouth with the constant cancellations," he said.

"They don't just hear about the cancellations in Toronto, or in whatever city they're in, they're hearing about cancellations in Barcelona, Paris and the States through reading about it on the internet. All of that has to be consumed into somebody's mind and make the issue a lot bigger than three or four shows."

Nicholas Li, an assistant professor of economics at Toronto Metropolitan University who monitors consumer habits, is less convinced that trouble lies ahead for concert organizers.

"I'm certainly sympathetic to people who find the whole experience to be sort of infuriating; one thing consumers don't like is sort of tremendous uncertainty," he said.

But he added: "I think there's so much pent-up demand that (it's) less of a concern that people are going to be turned off by the experience of an expensive show cancellation."

Alper isn't quite as convinced that's a guarantee.

He suggested that 2023 can go "either one of two ways" where fans return in droves or demonstrate more caution. He points out that he's worked on recent concerts that were "sold out" but saw only 70 per cent of ticketholders show up for the show..

Several other people in the industry, speaking about concerts and live theatre shows, confirmed that audiences have proven unpredictable in recent months with no clear throughline on their habits. Some say they assume concertgoers have come down with COVID and are staying home to isolate themselves, while others suggest maybe some shows aren't enough to draw people out of their homes, even if they have tickets.

Other factors could be at play as the concert industry looks for direction, including sentiment towards how ticket sellers are handling refunds.

Ticketmaster was slammed for changing its policy in 2020 saying it would no longer offer refunds for postponed concerts. The "hassle" and uncertainty of that experience might also impact future ticket sales, Alper supposed.

"For some people, maybe a (rescheduled) date doesn't work out for them ... or their their financial situations have changed drastically, they might've been laid off or gotten a divorce in COVID," he said.

"Maybe they'd rather have their $1,000 back right now. And I think it's only fair that they get it."

In volatile times, it's an open question whether the concert industry can afford more knocks to its reputation.

A short-term study by market research company Ipsos released last week said that with inflation at a 39-year high, Canadians are stripping back their spending plans on entertainment expenses.

The research found that 25 per cent of Generation X consumers say they are limiting their entertainment activities, compared to 15 per cent of Boomers.

Looking towards spending habits in August, both medium- and high-income Canadians say they plan to reduce their entertainment expenses outside the home — at events such as cinemas and concerts — by 21 per cent.

With such uncertainty, Krajewski says she's thinking of the musicians who are dealing with the business motivations of their labels, fan safety in the pandemic and their own need to pay the bills.

"They're doing the best they can in a very precarious time to be travelling, let along singing indoors," she said.

"There's so much (they're) taking on to make a living ... and everyone is rolling the dice right now to try and have a good time. Be gracious if it doesn't work out."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 31, 2022.

News from © The Canadian Press, 2022