FILE PHOTO - A University of Waterloo study predicts Kelowna will be the hardest hit city in Canada from heat waves by 2051.

(JENNIFER STAHN / iNFOnews.ca)

Kelowna is expected to get the longest and hottest heat waves in the country within the next 30 years compared to other major cities.

While B.C. continues to grapple with the costs of wildfires and flooding from last year, and prepares for another upcoming wildfire season, a new study suggests Kamloops and Okanagan cities should prepare for extreme heat in the coming decades.

A University of Waterloo study suggests heat waves could hit Kelowna, Penticton, Vernon and Kamloops that last up to 11 days. The average maximum temperature for the year in Kelowna could reach 40.2 C by 2051, according to the study.

"Warming and more intense extreme heat will be present for decades to come," study co-author Joanna Eyquem said. "If an extreme-heat event coincided with an extended electricity outage — with no fans or air conditioning running — loss of life could easily jump to the thousands."

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When the 2021 summer heat dome pummeled B.C. with record temperatures, 57 people died in the Thompson-Okanagan between June 25 and July 1, with a total 595 people in the province.

Kamloops and the Okanagan cities are within one of three geographic areas researchers expect will get dangerously high and long-lasting heat between 2051 and 2080.

The three regions include low-lying areas between the Lower Mainland and the Rocky Mountains, the southern prairies near the U.S. border and the Eastern metropolitan areas along the St. Lawrence River valley.

The new study projects long lasting heat waves with temperatures near or above 40 C will be more common in these areas within the next 30 years, but it also offers solutions for urban areas at risk of extreme heat.

University of Waterloo researchers suggest solutions like expanding green space within urban communities and adding green infrastructure, like planting green roofs and walls.

They also suggest property owners of residential and commercial buildings arrange for back-up power and water supply in case air conditioning or water pumps fail.

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"Vulnerable groups such as the elderly, those who live alone, and those with fewer financial resources will require targeted support," a University of Waterloo press release reads. "Heat is also an inequality issue — marginalized or racialized communities are even more vulnerable."

The University of Waterloo dubbed the extreme heat study as Canada's "code red" for climate change and rising temperatures. It follows the "code red for humanity" United Nations report from August 2021, which predicts a high likelihood that the world cannot keep below a 1.5 C climate warming limit.

The Canada-focused study did not predict heat waves sooner than 2051, but it did predict a less extreme temperature rise if carbon emissions are reduced.

The carbon emission projections are based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, and the study used a high emission scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise exponentially into the year 2100.

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Its low-carbon scenario still predicts a continued world increase of greenhouse gas emissions into 2050, but would rapidly drop thereafter.

In this case, Kelowna would still have the longest and hottest heat waves in the country, pushing well past historic data.

Compared to the maximum 11-day heat waves predicted in the study, Kelowna has historically maintained 6-day heatwaves between 1976 and 2005, with an average yearly high of around 35 C.

"I see extreme heat in a different category than all other climate perils," co-author Dr. Blair Feltmate said. "Extreme heat is more than inconvenient, it's potentially lethal. If we don't prepare for extreme heat, those who are vulnerable may die."

More information on the University of Waterloo study can be found here.

— With files from the Associated Press.

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