Image Credit: SUBMITTED/Downtown Kamloops

Imposed limits to international student enrolments has schools reviewing their finances, but they aren't the only ones preparing for a hit to the bottom line.

Foreign students often take service industry and low-skill jobs in the region during their schooling, so businesses in Kamloops and the Okanagan expect to feel the squeeze as fewer students are allowed in the country.

"Generally those students were filling entry-level jobs in places like my restaurants," Kelowna business owner Amarjit Lalli said. "Now what's going to end up happening is there's going to be a shortage of workers in those fields."

Lalli owns two Subway restaurants and expects he and other restaurant owners will have to make some changes as the labour pool of foreign students dwindles.

The federal government has capped how many study permits it will approve, first at 485,000 this year and 437,000 in 2025, in an effort to reduce strain on the economy. Examples cited in an announcement last January were housing and health care.

Thompson Rivers University saw enrolment among foreign students drop 10 per cent during the fall semester and the numbers expected to drop further. Smaller colleges could be hit harder because of which programs will be more favoured to see permits approved. Okanagan College expects to see a potential 30% drop in its international student enrolment.

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The schools are making changes, adjusting programs and cutting budgets, but how that will affect the workforce isn't known yet. Lalli said business owners who were relying on students for low-skilled work are bound to face a squeeze.

Lalli already lost two workers who were in Kelowna after their studies were done, but they moved back to the provinces in which they studied to better their chances of getting permanent residency. With fewer students in the future, he doesn't expect those vacancies to be picked up by local workers.

His restaurants once were open past midnight and earlier in the morning, but a lack of workers to choose from forced him to reduce hours. That was nearly a decade ago when he first turned to the temporary worker program before hiring foreign students. He expects his business hours to be shortened even more and other restaurants may take similar paths due to vacancies or an effort to cut costs.

"We've never gone back to our hours that we used to have," he said. "You'll start to see a lot of that happen again."

In 2018, BC had the greatest proportion of foreign students in its workforce at just over two per cent, and they accounted for nearly five per cent of workers among the hospitality and food service industry, according to Statistics Canada.

Around 220,000 study permits were approved in Canada that year and still nearly twice as many are slated for approval come the fall 2025 semester.

"With the ever-changing rules, the government's trying to fix a problem," Lalli said. "I don't think the government actually created the problem, I think it was the abuse of the system that caused the influx."

While the enrolment of foreign students has been a boon for colleges and universities, often charging three times that of a Canadian student's tuition, it's also a program the business sector used sometimes instead of the Temporary Foreign Worker program, Lalli said. It's a program that requires labour market assessments to justify a hiring an overseas employee, but that isn't necessary for a student.

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While the study program has been focused as a pathway for immigration, it's also one that post-secondary schools have come to rely on for funds. TRU's head of finance called the cuts an "apocalypse in post-secondary education courtesy of the federal government."

Vice president of finance Matt Milovick said the Kamloops university is "well positioned" to manage the coming enrolment drops, but likened the coming changes for business owners to temporary immigration cuts at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"The whole service industry was really struggling and I think we're going to see that again," he said. "And I think the light is on for various chambers (of commerce) across the country because there is going to be a lot of those entry-level jobs across the country... that will go unfilled. That will have a dramatic impact on service levels and expectations."

Those in the business community are observing the changes with concern, uncertain of what the impacts will be.

"We understand in regards to housing what the government is trying to do. However, the labour issues are huge," Howie Reimer, executive director of the Downtown Kamloops business association, said.

Just how many foreign students make up the workforce among those businesses isn't clear, but he said the make up of business owners and employees is "very diverse" and attributed it to TRU's students and graduates.

It's one of moving pieces in an evolving economic climate, with questions south of the border around the impacts of a potential mass tariff policy threatened by newly-elected U.S. president Donald Trump.

"It's the fear of the unknown right now," Kelowna Chamber of Commerce CEO George Greenwood said. "It's the perfect storm of uncertainty for many businesses in Kelowna right now."

While business owners and post-secondary schools brace for the cuts, the students here now are uncertain about their ability to keep studying in Canada.

"I think we're going to ease into this," Lalli said. "We need to be prepared now for what's coming down the pipeline."

Lalli, who has long been an active in the South Asian community and was a previous president of the Okanagan Sikh Temple and Cultural Society, said students are "worried about their job security and their pathway to permanent residency."

Some are questioning whether they will have to return to their home countries, he said.

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