The One Water development in Kelowna.

(JOHN MCDONALD / iNFOnews.ca)

CENTRAL OKANAGAN - There are a lot of nervous real estate sales folk right now after the release of March sales numbers for the Central Okanagan, the first possible indication of the effects of the speculation tax.

The signals are mixed at best.

Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board’s internal numbers for March show a 30 per cent drop in the number of units sold in the Central Okanagan as compared to the same month last year. At the same time, the number of units listed has risen just 2.4 per cent.

While the board has no love for the speculation tax, outgoing president Tanis Read said it’s too early to tell whether the tax is the reason for the drop in sales, given other indicators such as days on market and new listings were in line with last year’s March numbers.

“At this point, it’s difficult to know whether or not this is significant or it’s simply an anomaly,” Read said.

Adding to the confusion are the numbers from the North Okanagan where the speculation tax does not apply.

The number of units sold dropped almost 21 per cent while the number of listings rose three per cent as compared to March 2017.

Brandon Grass, a realtor with Residence Real Estate Group, says he’s had a few out-of-province clients tell him they are done with B.C. because of the speculation tax.

“They are like ‘we’re out, we’re washing our hands’,” Grass says. “I have so many investment clients waiting to see what happens. The market has slowed a bit, but if you look at values, they are still increasing.”

Grass says summer sales numbers will be the big indicator as the speculation tax kicks in.

“I think by July and August you will really start to see what this means,” he adds.

Some of the surge in listings could be a knee-jerk reaction to the spec tax, Grass says, similar to what happened in Vancouver when the foreign buyer’s tax was introduced in 2016.

“People in Vancouver lost their minds when the tax came in and there was a drop in sales but it eventually came back,” he adds. “If sales do drop, I think it will be a blip and will soon come back.”

In any case, Grass is still no fan of the speculation tax and says he all the realtors he knows have signed the Scrap the Tax petition demanding the tax be scrapped or that the Central Okanagan be excluded.

The anti-spec tax campaign is being mounted by the Urban Development Institute along with other tourism and business groups including the Kelowna Chamber of Commerce.

“There’s so much confusion right now with everything up in the air,” he says. “I have clients ask me what to do and I have to tell them ‘I’m sorry, I don’t know what to tell you.'"

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