(CARLI BERRY / iNFOnews.ca)

Kamloops voters are heading to the polls with new riding boundaries and just one incumbent on the ballot this time. If polls are to be trusted, that incumbent is favoured to take the seat under a new banner.

Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Peter Milobar joined the BC Conservative Party as the BC United Party (formerly the BC Liberal Party) dropped out of the BC election last month. He and fellow Kamloops-area Conservative Ward Stamer are both considered to be vying for safe seats for their party, according to 338 Canada polling.

The BC NDP put forward former international student advisor Kamal Grewal against Milobar and youth care worker Maddi Genn against Stamer. The provincial government has announced multiple new projects for Kamloops in recent months, like opening government land for housing and progress on the long-awaited cancer clinic, but it's remained a safe right-wing or centre-right region for more than two decades.

The Kamloops area was split into two ridings in 1991 when Kamloops-North Thompson was added. Once considered a bellwether for provincial politics, Kamloops voters have chosen an MLA from the winning party in every election until 2017, the year Milobar first took provincial office.

Although current polling puts both seats firmly in BC Conservative hands, Milobar's riding nearly turned orange four years ago when he beat the BC NDP's Sadie Hunter by just 196 votes or less than one per cent.

The boundaries for the two Kamloops ridings changed again for this year and are now quite different with an almost entirely urban focus in the new Kamloops Centre riding, replacing MLA Todd Stone's Kamloops-South Thompson electoral district. Kamloops-North Thompson, meanwhile, had a southward shift to its borders, notably losing much of North Kamloops but gaining Valleyview and rural areas like Chase and Westwold.

Milobar, who switched ridings to Kamloops Centre, leads with a popular vote projection of around 52% as of Oct. 15, followed by BC NDP's Kamal Grewal at 39% and Randy Sunderman of the BC Greens at 9%, according to pollster 338 Canada. While Kamloops-North Thompson was a tight race four years ago, it's now projected to be a wider split with a 59% stake for Stamer. The poll places BC NDP's Maddi Genn in second with 35% and the Green's Tristan Cavers with just 6%.

While Milobar has pledged to appeal to the centre right and continued to distance himself from the conspiracy-minded beliefs of others in his party, it's not clear such positions, like party leader John Rustad calling COVID-19 vaccines tools for "control," are dissuading voters.

The party did ditch some problematic candidates ahead of the campaign, but has made few changes, if any, since sweeping up BC United incumbents in August. Rustad stood by his current roster of candidates this month and said the decision is up to BC voters.

Although switching to a new riding, Milobar is the only incumbent on the ballot for Kamloops-area voters. Stone's drop from the race means entirely fresh faces for the Kamloops-North Thompson riding.

Provincial polling projects a tight race between the BC NDP and the BC Conservative Party, but 338 Canada suggests both Kamloops ridings are unlikely to convert from a right-of-centre candidate.

Demographics:

The boundary changes to both ridings was prompted in part by a growing population in the region. Statistics Canada now considers Kamloops a census metropolitan area and its population, including some outlying communities, grew by almost 10% in the most recent census. With 114,142 people in 2021, nearly 98,000 of those are within the city itself.

The city's average age is 42.4, up by 0.5 from the 2016 census and is just a year below the provincial average. There were 33,030 people between the ages of 20 and 44, 25,180 between 45 and 64, and older than 65 there were 19,660 people at the time of the 2021 census. Voter turnout, meanwhile, generally increases with age. From 55 years old and up, 60% of eligible BC residents voted in 2020, while 52% between 45 and 54 cast a ballot and less than half for those younger than 45.

Elections BC reflected what it observed to be "urbanization" in one of the country's fastest growing cities by making Kamloops Centre the city's first to be entirely bound within municipal boundaries. Although redrawn, it kept the Kamloops-North Thompson rather than splitting Barriere into a Cariboo riding because of the highway and economic connections to Kamloops.

Today's issues:

Some of the most pressing issues in the Kamloops area are not dissimilar from those in communities across BC.

Kamloops residents pointed to social issues like homelessness, poverty, drug use and rising crime as their top concern affecting their quality of life, according to a 2022 City of Kamloops survey. That was followed by cost of living and housing affordability, along with health care.

The Kamloops census area was named Canada's crime capital this summer as local crime rates stay relatively high.

Kamloops area housing, meanwhile, hasn't been hit as hard as the Okanagan by rising housing costs in the past decade, the spike since COVID hasn't dipped far yet, even with dropping interest rates.

Health care continues to be an issue throughout the Interior, with rural emergency patients pushed to Royal Inland Hospital due to periodic department closures. The city is also without a walk-in clinic, which squeezes health-care options for residents without family doctors — estimated at 40% of the city in 2022, according to Kamloops This Week. Aside from the emergency department, same-day appointments are offered at just one private clinic and the hospital's Urgent and Primary Care Centre, which fill quickly.

Do voters show up?

In 2020, turnout in the two Kamloops ridings was a little over half, with a greater share going to Kamloops-South Thompson. That riding had a 56.5% turnout with 26,480 ballots, compared to 22,946 for Kamloops-North Thompson, representing 50.6% of those eligible.

The provincial average in 2020 was 54%, which is the lowest since at least 1996 when the province had a 72% turnout. Elections BC has recorded a steady decline since that year, with a small bump by a few percentage points in 2017.

Who to vote for in Kamloops:

Kamloops Centre

Kamloops Centre 2024 election candidates Peter Milobar, Randy Sunderman and Kamal Grewal (left to right).

Image Credit: SUBMITTED/BC Conservative Party, BC Green Party and BC NDP

Peter Milobar - BC Conservative Party (incumbent)

Peter Milobar has been on the political scene in Kamloops for more than 20 years. He first won won a seat on city council in 2002, graduating to the mayorship in 2008 when he succeeded Terry Lake. In 2017, Milobar followed Lake's lead again by taking his place as BC Liberal MLA for Kamloops-North Thompson.

His provincial government career has been spent solely as the official opposition, most recently as BC United's official critic for finance. He has previously been official critic for environment and for Indigenous relations.

Milobar was selected to take over the Kamloops Centre candidacy from Dennis Giesbrecht, a Kamloops resident who was parachuted into the Vernon-Lumby riding.

Amid the BC Conservative rise to prominence in the past year, Milobar had criticized the party and its leader for appealing to far-right issues. He was one of many BC United MLAs to then convert to the BC Conservative ship as theirs sunk at the end of August, promising to be a more moderate voice within the party his fellow Kamloops MLA, Todd Stone, described as "one big tent" of conservative views.

Kamal Grewal - BC NDP

In her first foray into politics, Kamal Grewal was picked by the incumbent party this summer, following city councillor Bill Sarai's retreat from the nomination.

She currently serves on the board of Canadian Mental Health Association's Kamloops branch and previously worked as an international student advisor at Thompson Rivers University. She is now working for a private insurance company, which serves TRU's international students. She was also a student at TRU, where she studied economics, according to Castanet Kamloops.

As the BC NDP candidate, she would place her focus on healthcare, housing and affordability, according to her party bio.

Randy Sunderman - BC Green Party

Randy Sunderman is a longtime Kamloops resident making his first run at provincial politics. He's an economist who has worked for consulting firms and, when he moved to Kamloops in 1996, the provincial government.

Sunderman has also sat on various local boards and worked with local community associations. He was previously a member of the Kamloops Voters Society, a small group that conducted surveys and monitored local governance. In the most recent municipal election, he landed ninth place, just missing a Kamloops council seat.

His party bio pitches Sunderman as a "strong" candidate with a strong background in economic development.

Kamloops-North Thompson:

Kamloops-North Thompson 2024 election candidates Maddi Genn, Tristan Cavers and Ward Stamer (left to right).

Image Credit: SUBMITTED/BC NDP, BC Green Party and BC Conservative Party

Ward Stamer - BC Conservative Party

In 2018, Ward Stamer was first elected Mayor of the community of Barriere, just north of Kamloops. He came from a lengthy background working in forestry and spent some time as chair of the local improvement district. Upon incorporation in 2007, he continued on as a councillor until two elections as mayor in 2018 and 2022. Along with his business and political background, Stamer has also served as a Lions Club member for 30 years, according to his party bio.

It's his second run at higher office following an attempt for the local federal Conservative Party nomination in 2021, which he lost to the current MP Frank Caputo.

As an MLA, his party bio says Stamer would focus on advocating for regional health-care access, fiscal responsibility and growth in resource industries like mining and forestry. He also "proposes fostering public-private partnerships" to address housing affordability.

Maddi Genn - BC NDP

Maddi Genn is a youth care worker who moved to Kamloops as a student in 2016. Originally from Salmon Arm, her career has balanced both supporting troubled youth and her coworkers as a trade unionist, according to her party bio.

According to the BC NDP webpage, she aims to "build a more equal and accessible future" by focusing on housing, healthcare and cost of living if elected as an MLA.

Tristan Cavers - BC Green Party

Chase resident Tristan Cavers was a late announcement by the BC Green Party. The farmer and volunteer firefighter's candidacy was announced in early October for the Kamloops-North Thompson riding.

His brother Donavan is a former Kamloops city councillor and while it's Cavers' first time on an electoral ballot, he has worked with multiple community groups. He has served on the boards for the Chase Chamber of Commerce, the Kamloops Farmers' Market and for Chase and Area Family Services, according to his party bio.

BC election day is Saturday, Oct. 19.

Go here for instructions on how to register to vote and other information about the 2024 election.

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