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The BC NDP has high hopes for Kelowna in the upcoming provincial election whether it's because of demographics, new ridings or a split vote.

The BC NDP has never elected an NDP MLA in Kelowna ridings in the past, but this October, the party has higher expectations.

"We have people telling us that we have more of a chance than we've had in years, so I'm excited to work the campaign again this year," Maria Tokarchuk, executive member of the Electoral District Association for the NDP, says. "Having been involved in elections for 20 years in this area, I can say that the areas that are encompassed in the new Kelowna Centre riding, have usually done better than the others."

The new Kelowna Centre riding encompasses Kelowna's downtown core, from the shore of the Lake to Highway 97 on one end and from K.L.O. Road to McKinley Road on the other.

Tokarchuk says that, in the past, polls have shown this area to vote NDP and says the demography of the area is usually what explains the popularity of the party.

"In reality, this riding is all up for grabs because there has been such an influx of new residents to this area, but in the past this area contains more renters, lower and middle-class income folks, and it's generally an area of working-class residents who aren't making a lot of money. These people have different priorities than people who are very wealthy or in the upper-middle class."

Namely, voters of lower and middle classes seem to be more concerned about affordability than other voter groups. While other parties have blamed the NDP for the affordability crisis, Tokarchuk maintains affordability is one of the party's priorities.

"The affordability is really, really a big issue, which will definitely skew things and, most likely, in our favour," she says. "When parties blame the affordability crisis on the NDP, they should first look at what the BC Liberals did when they were in power for 16 years. Their job as the opposition is to be oppositional and that's why you'll get comments in which they blame the current government for the affordability crisis, but honestly, I don't think they ring true. If they believed that, they would have some real solutions, which they don't."

People in Kelowna, especially in areas surrounding downtown, vote for the NDP because they see the party as responsible and actively putting money toward the issues that BC residents are most concerned about.

"The other reason I think people, in general, gave the NDP such a big victory four years ago was because they saw how responsible the government was in dealing with COVID," Tokarchuk says. "I believe that people can see what a government, a party, or a Premier is doing. Look at the budget: the focus is on childcare, on families, things that affect the daily lives of most people."

"Then we have people who can afford a second home in Kelowna that are complaining of the speculation tax because that affects them, and they won't vote for a party that brings that in, which is fair enough, but that is not the majority of people in the province. Most people are faced with affordability problems."

Polls conducted by 338 Canada confirm NDP popularity and currently project the riding to be NDP-leaning with a possibility of winning 33% of the votes.

The polling firm further projects an unusual NDP popularity in Kelowna-Mission where the NDP could get 32% of the votes. As of now, the projections still show the riding as a 'toss-up' as the Conservatives tail the NDP at 28% of votes.

When it comes to attracting these conservative voters, who have in the past, made up most of the votes in local ridings, Tokarchuk says they'll attract those who share the NDP's vision of supporting the lower and middle classes.

"The word 'conservative' doesn't mean the same things it meant 15 years ago. Conservatives are attracting different people today and a lot of them are people who are anti-vax and believe in conspiracy theories. While it's not all of them, we try to attract voters who are reasonable and can see the merit in supporting lower-class and middle-class people and to help mitigate the wealth inequality that is going on in this world and this country."

Because Kelowna, along with most of the Okanagan Valley, historically attracts more conservative voters, the BC NDP finds hope in the possibility of a split vote.

In the past, the BC Conservatives did not have much of a presence in the area, so conservative voters would vote for the BC Liberals, now BC United. Now, with two options for a right-leaning party, votes could get split and lead to NDP victories.

"The vote (between BC United and BC Conservatives) will definitely split, it's just a question of how much and where. When you look at the people and how they vote provincially, people who voted for the BC Liberals, who are now BC United, voted for the conservatives federally, so it'll be interesting to see where this core group, that usually votes liberal, will go," Tokarchuk says. "If those conservative voters truly believe in conservative values, then they'll vote conservative, but if they believe BC United holds a better chance at winning, they'll vote United, but who knows? All we know is that we could win over ridings as a result of a split vote."

The BC NDP has yet to announce any candidates, although Tokarchuk confirms that one person is seeking the candidacy in Kelowna-Centre. This nominee is still going through the vetting process, along with 92 other nominees across the province.

Tokarchuk says the NDP has hired more staff to vet candidates and will publicly announce them as soon as possible.

The BC Election will take place on or before Oct. 19.

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