(ROB MUNRO / iNFOnews.ca)

In late January, oil analyst Roger McKnight told iNFOnews.ca that the price per litre of gas in Thompson and Okanagan pumps would reach close to $1.90 per litre by the middle of April.

That was before Russia invaded Ukraine last week and triggered major price increases, to as much as $2 a litre in Vancouver. So far, it’s closer to the $1.75 range in the Thompson-Okanagan.

READ MORE: Gas prices shoot past $2 a litre in Vancouver

“I can’t see prices really slowing down at all,” McKnight, the chief petroleum analyst with En-Pro International, told iNFOnews.ca March 4. “There’s nothing to really stop it. The price of crude is still going up. The demand is still going up. People want to get back on the roads and to the airport and out of town.”

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine just adds to what was already a deteriorating world oil supply situation and is speeding up the price escalation.

With the closing price of crude oil Friday, McKnight expects the price at the pumps to go up another six cents a litre by Sunday.

The supply problem, so far, is not created by the war since no one has banned imports from Russia, which is one of the largest oil producing countries in the world.

Even if the U.S. and Canada were to cut off Russian imports it would have minimal impact on North American supplies.

Canada gets 17,000 barrels a day from Russia out of daily consumption of 1.3 million barrels, McKnight said. The U.S. consumes 20 million barrels a day with 290,000 coming from Russia.

With mid-term elections coming up, McKnight doesn’t expect U.S. President Joe Biden to ban Russian oil because that would still have an impact at the pumps.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) agreed earlier this week to increase its supply of oil by 400,000 barrels a day in April.

McKnight noted those countries are closely aligned with Russia and quite like the higher oil prices filling their bank accounts these days.

Canadian producers are also benefiting from the higher crude prices but McKnight doesn’t begrudge them for that.

“I think Alberta and Western Canada are doing a bit better but they’ve had a tough time for the past couple of years so it looks good on them,” he said.

There are two options for some relief at the pumps, McKnight said, adding that neither are likely to happen.

One is to open up world reserves.

U.S. President Joe Biden released 50 million barrels out the U.S. strategic reserves a few weeks ago but that’s only enough for a couple of days. Massive U.S. reserves just aren’t available.

OPEC doesn’t have enough reserves to shore up any drop in Russian supplies, even if they were willing to do so.

Nor does Japan.

The one country that does have significant enough reserves to impact where things are going is China and they are too closely aligned with Russia, McKnight said.

“The other thing that could stop the (upward spiral) is if the politicians in both countries (Canada and U.S.) and states and provinces started lowering taxes and give the consumer a break in that regard,” he said. “But I think that’s wishful thinking.”

McKnight refused to predict how high prices might go or when things might settle down.

“How long this might go on is a very difficult question because this is a political nightmare right now,” he said.

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