Penticton growing twice as fast as predictions
The population of Penticton has been growing twice as fast as planners anticipated six years ago.
An annual growth rate of 0.65% was predicted when the city published its Official Community Plan in 2016. But since then the average rate of growth has been 1.2%, according to Blake Laven, the city’s director of development services.
The actual rate of growth was even beyond the calculation's margin of error. “Variation in these rates could result in a higher growth rate (1.1%) or low growth (0.1%),” the OCP reads.
Starting in 2016, Penticton was expecting to add about 250 residents every year until 2046. But the population of the city grew from 33,761 in 2016 to 36,885 in 2021 – more than 500 residents per year.
Penticton and its surrounding area grew from 43,534 in 2016 to 47,380 in 2021. The surrounding areas include the Penticton Indian Band, and Areas D, F and I in the Regional District of Okanagan Similkameen.
The original prediction was made by a reputable firm that specializes in growth forecasts, Laven said.
“Where I think it was off was the amount of migration that we have seen to B.C. and the Okanagan in general, and then you add in the pandemic and the massive investments in real estate and then the numbers really get thrown off,” he said.
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The OCP anticipated in 2016 that 4,464 new dwellings would be needed by 2046.
“Since that report was complete we have constructed over 2,264 units or roughly half of the units required over the 30 year period, in just five years,” Laven said. “And on pace to build out that 30 year vision within 12 years.”
The census recorded 24,027 private dwellings in 2021.
Jeffrey Sefton, a real estate agent with South Okanagan Home Team, said despite the high demand for housing in Penticton, developers are struggling to keep up for two major reasons – a labour shortage, and volatility in the cost of supplies.
He’s noticed more people, especially younger adults, moving to Penticton since the pandemic.
Now older folks – who are still a large proportion of the city’s population – are having trouble downsizing in a market with such low inventory and Sefton said that has added gridlock.
While every format of housing is currently in high demand, he said bungalow-style homes are especially sought after.
“We don’t have the labour, materials are too expensive, we’re behind on the number of houses – I don’t know how you catch up quickly,” he said.
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– This story was updated at 1:55 p.m. on July 3 to add census figures of people living within the City of Penticton, in addition those in the surrounding areas such as the Penticton Indian Band, and Areas D, F and I in the Regional District of Okanagan Similkameen.
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