David A. Lieb
JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. - Years of losses have left Democrats at historic lows in state legislatures. But now they're seeking to wrest control of as many as a dozen chambers from Republicans, a key step in gaining more influence in redistricting.
The battle for statehouse control is playing out in more than half the states with tens of millions of dollars of planned political spending before the Nov. 8 general election. Democrats are hoping the turmoil surrounding Donald Trump's presidential campaign can boost their fortunes in down-ballot races, although Hillary Clinton remains unpopular in many Republican-leaning regions.
"When you go district by district, when you look at where all these races are, we're in a highly competitive environment," said Matt Walter, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee.
"A volatile environment" is how it's described by his counterpart Jessica Post, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
Money spent on TV advertising for state House and Senate races is up more than 50 per cent compared with the same point in 2014, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press by the Center for Public Integrity of data from the media-tracking firm Kantar Media/CMAG.
With gridlock in Washington, states increasingly are where policies are adopted on major issues such as gun rights, marijuana use, minimum wages and the regulation of businesses in the new economy, such as ride-sharing services and online fantasy sports.
Also at stake is redistricting control. The party that controls legislatures and governorships during the 2020 Census will have the upper hand in redrawing congressional and state legislative districts in those states. Controlling those boundaries can ensure a political advantage for the next decade.
Republicans now control 69 of the 99 state legislative chambers — their most ever. (Nebraska is the only state with just a single legislative chamber.)
That GOP advantage also means more seats to defend.
National Democratic and Republican groups are particularly focused on 27 states where they hope either to flip control of a chamber or cut into the opposing party's majority with an eye toward greater gains in the future.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee says it expects to win control of between eight and 12 new chambers and has highlighted 52 "essential races," including many in presidential battleground states.
The GOP's Walter acknowledges Republicans may see a slight overall decline, but he says they still could win several new chambers, including the Kentucky House, the lone Democratic-led chamber in the Southeast. The Republican State Leadership Committee has been running TV ads portraying Democratic Kentucky House Speaker Greg Stumbo as a Clinton ally intent on putting coal miners out of work.
At the top of the target list for Democrats is the Michigan House, where dozens of Republicans elected in the wave of 2010 are now barred by term limits from seeking re-election. Adding to Democratic hopes: Clinton is ahead in the polls there, and Republican Gov. Rick Snyder's popularity has tanked following his administration's handling of the lead-tainted water in Flint. Democrats must gain nine seats to reclaim the chamber, meaning they likely need victories in some blue-collar districts where Trump figures to fare better.
Several states with split-party control in their legislatures are being targeted by both parties, including Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico and Washington.
Republicans currently hold a precarious single-seat advantage over Democrats in the Colorado Senate, while Democrats hold just a three-seat lead in the House. One of the most pivotal races is in Denver's western suburbs, where Republican Sen. Laura Woods faces a rematch against Democrat Rachel Zenzinger, who held the seat in 2014.
Woods says a Democratic-backed political group has targeted her in automated phone calls linking her to Trump. But Woods, a self-described Christian conservative, says she has forgiven Trump for his sexual comments and will not abandon him.
"I think if Donald Trump wins my district, I'm likely to," Wood said. "And if Hillary Clinton wins my district, my opponent is likely to win."
Former Attorney General Eric Holder was announced Monday as chairman of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, a newly created alliance of Democratic leaders, unions and progressive groups with a goal of boosting Democrats' chances in time for the 2021 redistricting.
Republicans made big gains in state capitols in 2010, just in time for the last round of redistricting. During the 2012 elections, Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives actually received about 1.4 million more votes than their Republican opponents, yet the GOP won a 33-seat House majority, partly because Republican-dominated state legislatures had drawn districts to their favour. Republicans made even more gains in 2014.
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